Jun 11, 2026

Beroe Warns of Tightening European Jet Fuel Supply as Hormuz Conflict Disrupts Global Flows

European jet fuel inventories remain below seasonal norms
Continued stability depends on U.S. exports and refinery output offsetting reduced Middle East flows
Airlines and fuel buyers face increasing pricing and supply-chain uncertainty

RALEIGH, NC – June 11, 2026 – Beroe, the global leader in procurement decision intelligence, has released a market assessment on the global jet fuel supply environment, warning that ongoing disruptions to oil and refined fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz are placing sustained pressure on European aviation fuel markets ahead of peak summer travel demand.

According to Beroe’s latest intelligence, Europe currently holds approximately four to six weeks of commercial jet fuel coverage, with inventory levels remaining below normal seasonal averages. While supply conditions at major aviation hubs remain stable for now, the market continues to rely heavily on uninterrupted U.S. exports and increased refinery output to offset reduced Middle Eastern cargo flows.

Which European regions face the greatest jet fuel supply risk?

The United Kingdom remains among the most exposed regions due to its continued reliance on imported jet fuel from the Middle East.
Southern Europe and Mediterranean aviation corridors are also experiencing tightening inventories.
Northwest Europe continues to face the strongest pricing pressure as the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub remains the benchmark center for European jet fuel pricing.

Beroe’s analysis shows that current market concerns are centered more on elevated prices and tightening inventories than on immediate large-scale physical shortages.

“Airlines and airports have largely downplayed the risk of severe supply interruptions publicly as the industry moves into the summer travel season, though pricing volatility and inventory depletion remain key operational concerns,” said Arun Lawrance, Team Lead Oil and Gas Research at Beroe.

How are U.S. jet fuel exports affecting global aviation fuel markets?

Higher U.S. jet fuel exports have helped ease European fuel premiums and stabilize regional supply availability in recent months. However, stronger export activity could tighten U.S. domestic fuel balances over time, particularly in coastal markets, potentially increasing domestic jet fuel prices and narrowing arbitrage opportunities.

At the same time, U.S. summer driving demand may shift refinery priorities toward gasoline production, creating additional pressure on global jet fuel balances.

How are airlines responding to rising jet fuel costs?

Airlines globally are already adjusting network and capacity strategies in response to rising fuel costs and ongoing market uncertainty, according to Beroe’s Senior Analyst of Professional Services and Travel, Sreekutty TS.

Recent examples include:

easyJet: Implementing disciplined capacity management to offset the direct hit to profitability and bookings.
Lufthansa: Pivoting to aggressive operational optimization and supply sourcing diversification.
Air India: Cutting domestic flight capacity by 22%.
IndiGo: Reducing domestic operations by approximately 7%.

Across Europe and North America, airlines are increasingly prioritizing higher-yield routes and slowing broader network expansion to protect margins amid sustained fuel price pressure.

What procurement and aviation leaders should monitor next

According to Beroe, key indicators to watch include inventory levels at major European aviation hubs, U.S. export volumes, refinery utilization rates, Middle East shipping conditions and fuel price movements across the ARA trading hub. Continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could extend supply pressures throughout the summer travel season and create additional procurement challenges for airlines, airports and fuel buyers.

About Beroe

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